No chance. Recent events and the crowd's group think bullish/denialistic interpretation thereof, have me only further emboldened.
First the (perceived) "Good news":
1) U.S. economic recovery perceived to be picking up steam
2) DOW back at the highest level since 2008
3) European issues, seemingly resolved for the moment
4) Occupy Wall Streeters settled down for a long winter's nap
1) Economy:
First, this can't possibly be considered a sustainable recovery from a debt crisis, when we are adding ever more debt to the pile to sustain that illusion. This time, instead of consumer debt it's Federal government debt, but it's still money we are borrowing from the future to pretend that we are wealthy today.
Suffice, to say that if policy-makers since World War II had been willing to borrow as much money (10% of GDP/year) as the current crop of clueless buffoons, then there would have been no recessions in the past 60 years ! Think about that, we could have just papered over every single recession with massive government borrowing and pretended they never happened. So, any notion that the 2008 recession ever ended is complete denialism. Believing that the U.S. will be the first nation in history to borrow its way to prosperity is a fool's errand of the highest order.
Meanwhile, on the jobs front, there are still 5.6 million fewer jobs today than there were in 2008, in the face of ongoing population growth. Only an economist would say we are in a recovery when the average family is worse off now than it was 4 years ago.
2) Stock Market:
This has been a purely liquidity driven market since 2009. It's like a race car on nitrous oxide - good for a few seconds and then it blows the engine. First QE1 powered the market, then it was QE2 and now it's the ECB's "bazooka". All of these Fed/ECB programs are just central banks adding trillions of dollars and Euros of liquidity into the markets by buying government bonds. This in turn drives down interest rates and sets off a global "hunt for yield" aka. rally in stocks and other risk assets. It's a temporary illusion driven by liquidity but not supported by solvency. Case in point, these Greek "bailouts" will do nothing to improve solvency. The German government lends the Greek government ~100b euros and forces the Greeks to cut spending. The Greek Gov't then turns around and uses the money to repay German banks on existing loans. All the while, the Greek people are now on the hook for another 100b euros and their economy is spiraling into the abyss as the paradox of thrift takes a death grip on their economy. The only ones being bailed out are the German and other European lenders.
Exhibit A: Effect of Fed/ECB on stock prices
Exhibit B: Apple - the bellwether stock of our time.
As you can see below, this past two weeks, Apple's stock went parabolic and surpassed $500/share and the half trillion market cap mark. The last technology stock to surpass the half trillion mark was Cisco in March 2000. I remember it well, because it occurred within days of the all time high in the Nasdaq. It's not to say that there is anything magical about 500 billion market cap, but Apple's vertical stock price and the valuation accorded to the pending Facebook IPO (100x earnings) are harking back to the lunacy of the Dot Com era. No thanks. Been there. Done that.
3) Europe Resolved
As I said above, "Extend and Pretend" are the order of the day. The Exhibit A chart above shows the ECB just juiced the market to buy itself some time. The only question on the table is how long will this rally last?
4) Occupy Wall Street settled down for a long winter's nap
Spring is around the corner...
