[Original Post Nov. 30, 2011]
Another day, another hope-filled parabolic stock rally based on desperation, wishful thinking and Central Bank machinations. This time it's an overnight China rate cut combined with a better-than-expected ADP jobs forecast on top of globally coordinated Central Bank interventions in credit markets. Regardless, it's just more of the same "elixirs" that have at best just kicked the can down the road a bit and at worst are the root cause behind this ongoing economic fiasco. I am not talking about the good jobs number which is always a welcome sign, I am speaking of the ongoing monetary policy manipulation that so obviously is meant to fuel the markets and otherwise perpetuate the illusion of recovery for yet another few hours or days.
I have mentioned before the concept of attenuation - a series of lower highs in the stock/risk markets, each of shorter and shorter duration. The trend actually started in 2000, but even since 2007, as indicated in the chart below, the downtrend is acutely apparent. The 2007 high was followed by a collapse to 666 (I know) in the S&P 500 market index. The 2009/2010 rally retraced 77% of the former high, culminating in a high this past May. The 3 week rally in October retraced 74% of the May high and this latest spike is now at ~67% of the October high and running on fumes as I write. These steep upward retracements have a way of lulling everyone into a sense of complacency. It's a truly diabolical market with a goal to lock in as many greedy fools and fools' dollars as possible. By all accounts it's succeeding mightily.
The coloured 1s and 2s, starting with blue on the left, are Elliot Wave notation indicating degrees of trend and wave structure. If this labeling is correct or near correct, then we are heading for a 3rd wave down at multiple degrees of trend, euphemistically known as "The Point of Recognition" - a very rare occurrence, and likely portending the largest collapse in risk assets, in U.S. history. In any case, you don't have to be a market technician or an Elliot Wave believer, to see that we are in a downtrend and the market is losing upside momentum, not withstanding Bernanke flailing around like a cub bear playing with his dink.
About those Fundamentals
Despite today's improved ADP report, which is inherently volatile, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that the fundamentals of the economy are improving. While watching CNBC the other day, it struck me that Wall Street, having ass raped the rest of the world, has finally gotten around to screwing itself. In one segment, there was a discussion by James Altucher the most clueless 1%er this side of Kudlow, talking about "record high profit margins", only to segue directly into another segment as to why revenue growth is so anemic, and likely will be for the foreseeable future. The connection between these two seemingly incompatible occurrences is called the "paradox of thrift", which means that if one person saves more money he becomes wealthier, whereas if we all try to save more money, the economy tanks. As usual, you can't make this shit up - imagine being an overpaid MBA consultant out there telling your umpteenth client that by cutting costs, you can grow your business; wouldn't you eventually have some sort of epiphany that in aggregate the strategy is not going to work?
Likewise, one of my favourite anecdotes is of Henry Ford parading through one of hist newest plants ~70 years ago... he stops at one point to embarass the one union leader in attendance, by pointing at the nearest assembly line and saying: "See those people working over there? Eventually, they will all be replaced by machines". To which the union leader, not skipping a beat, says "Sure, but then who will buy your cars?". In the end they were clearly both right, yet I have a sense that old Henry was rolling over in his grave when his company's stock traded for the cost of a $1 Oh Henry! bar at the nadir two years ago. Nor would he be consoled to know that neither machines nor underpaid foreigners buy his cars, therefore the stock will likely be trading back below the candy bar level in the not-too-distant future.
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That leaves the most important question of all i.e. who the hell will lead us out of this mess, and rebuild the economy?
Is it a President who spends 50% of his time campaigning and otherwise has no business experience whatsoever? A Congress that likewise campaigns non-stop and otherwise spent us into this fiasco ? A Federal Reserve that keeps trying to lower the cost of borrowing so we can pile up ever more debt? Or the 1% self-nominated "best and brightest" country club who outsourced all of the jobs and yet can't figure out why profits are so high and revenue growth so low ? The fact is that none of the fools who got us into this mess, will be the ones who can get us out.
Let's face it, the real "Point of Recognition" will not just be when Wall Street shits another brick and gets pink slips instead of bonuses in the Christmas stocking this year - it will come when everyone finally realizes that today's "best and brightest" are neither.
