Ignorance Is Abyss

This will be the first time in U.S. history that the economy collapsed ahead of the stock market. Normally gamblers derisk ahead of recession. This time they decided to ride out depression...

The most important chart right now for gamblers is the chart showing t-bonds versus stocks. Normally they go in opposite directions, but for several months they've both been trending higher as bond yields exhibit economic deflation. Bonds are saying the economy is rolling over, while stocks are saying hang on for the imaginary tax cut. Only one will be right in the end...

The connection between bonds and stocks is via the dollar. A lower bond yield (higher price) weakens the dollar and removes a critical source of stock market liquidity.

Bonds are on the verge of breaking through the election gap.

Speaking of carry trades, the rally in Euro and Yen has monkey hammered the global carry trades. And yet, so far EM currencies have held up. Again, only one can be right in the end:

Of course any rollover in EM currencies will also take down the S&P 500:

What is the connection between EM Currencies and the S&P 500? U.S. listed Chinese internet stocks, which are the largest holdings in the EM stock ETF, and among major hedge funds:

Speaking of currencies, Bitcoin is right at the edge of violating the prior breakout level, $4500

Bitstamp, $USD:

What A Fool Believes

The global delusion is complete. Per Elliott Wave 101, copious dunces misallocated capital and then fabricated a fake narrative after-the-fact. Overheating stock market and imploding economy, what could go wrong?

Contrary to ubiquitous belief, raising interest rates at the end of an eight year debt binge offset by a fake-believe tax cut, is not "reflationary". The Fed has successfully killed another recovery. They are batting 1000 since WWII...

Nevertheless, this is the narrative that the average dunce has been sold by their "trusted" advisors...

"Paulsen expects inflation will become a bigger and bigger focus. Plus, he said bond yields will trend higher — hence changing the market's character."

Paulsen is telling investors to ride the rest of the bull market by buying "overheat economy" sectors. 

"I would prefer to look at the industrials, materials, energy, technology and then the financials"

"We recommend the riskiest sectors, right before they implode"

To say that this is going to be painful is an asinine understatement

The Price Of Denial Is Everything

Denial is a form of irresponsibility towards future generations. Fortunately it comes with its own solution compliments of serial psychopaths and all-knowing morons...

This is what happens when you buy things that don't have any intrinsic value, and there's no bigger fool to be conned:

We're becoming Japan, an aging society of self-medicated amnesiacs trapped in a seemingly never ending cycle of bubbles and bust. The lesson that wasn't learned in 2008 is that a real economy is based upon supply and demand, not supply and debt. There needs to be a sufficient wage base to buffer poverty and insolvency. Over the ensuing eight years, labour has gone even further under the bus, compliments of bailouts and money printing, the Idiocracy's proprietary secret to effortless wealth.

So it's entirely apropos of this pathetic era ahead of Labour day weekend no less, that stocks closed higher today on the news of weaker than expected jobs and wages, since that means the Fed is on hold with rate hikes:

We'll find out in the coming days how bullish wage deflation is when the hot money flows back to Japan deja vu of 2008:

After their best monthly gains in over a year, Treasury traders locked in profits on the first day of the new month. That's all.

Now, to complete the lesson, it's capital's turn to go under the bus. What we face now is 2015 x 2011 x 2008 x Y2K. But don't take my word for it, for that we turn to the IQ test for stoned zombies...

Money flow is circa 2015, breadth is circa 2016:

Here's another view of 2015's imagined reality:

Perfect symmetry

2011 was a confluence of Debt ceiling, EM stock blowoff, Fed balance sheet runoff, mass complacency, and deflation:

No amnesiac has seen this movie before:

2008 of course was all about banks getting into trouble because they lent out 1% money for two years straight. This time, they fixed that problem by lending out 0% money for 8 years straight: 

Second largest U.S. bank:

And of course we now have Y2K deja vu

Because ALL it takes to con sheeple into believing anything, is time.

iPhoney Rally. Smoke And Morons. Nothing Else

You only have to look past retail, restaurants, autos, housing, and jobs imploding, to believe in this historically massive con job.

ZH: Floods, Nukes, And Pitiful Payrolls. Best Week For Stocks In 2017

Nothing in the world lies as much as misallocated capital:

Deflation wins again

Retail inventory liquidations:

Restaurant and bar sales

Home prices

Auto sales

Global trade

As long as everyone buys a $1,000 iPhoney8, this will all be fine. After all, it's "1" better than iPhoney7...

Markets Don't Live On Bullshit Alone

There's a reason no one sees collapse ahead of time, they don't want to appear foolish or incompetent. Because when it comes to being a serial-conned dunce everyone knows there's strength in numbers...

This week I, Clownius paraded his new invisible tax plan for all to see...unfortunately, markets don't live on bullshit alone:

"If production and sales are trending lower, hiring more workers doesn’t make sense. And yet that is what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported for August, based on its survey of businesses. Most likely, the data showing a spike in hiring is simply noise. It didn’t happen, and will probably be revised away."

"The Emperor's New Clothes" is a short tale written by Danish author Hans Christian Andersen, about two weavers who promise an emperor a new suit of clothes that they say is invisible to those who are unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent. When the emperor parades before his subjects in his new clothes, no one dares to say that they don't see any suit of clothes on him for fear that they will be seen as "unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent"

Ten months from the election, and Trump's tax plan remains 100% sheer fantasy believed by everyone. In the meantime, higher interest rates have been monkey hammering borrowers. Unfortunately, time has run out...

"Tax reform is due any minute now"

This week, Trump touted his new invisible tax plan:

Trump's Punts Tax Plan To Congress Who Haven't Figured It Out Either

Goldman Sachs Secretary of the Bailout, Steve Mnuchin, further clarified:

We Have A Very Detailed Plan Coming Soon...

Which is interesting, because that's exactly what he said five months ago:

April, 2017:
Steve Mnuchin: Major Tax Plan Is Coming 'Soon'

Now if you're some sort of Alzheimer's ridden geriatric watching Faux News marathons, then one could be forgiven for believing in this serial B.S., however, markets do not live on bullshit alone. Aside from post-payrolls volatility compression, there is NOTHING holding this fantasy up any longer...

Aside from Bitcoin and Fucktoken

Although the Bitcoin Trust is getting monkey hammered ahead of the long weekend:

Today's goal, kiss Dow 22,000 goodbye...

Who do you trust?

No, really, which one of these clowns is right?

"When Obama leaves to join me every weekend on the golf course, you're going to see some very bad things happen"