"They Bet It All On The Jobless Consumer"

Volume and volatility are set to explode...

But first, add Australia to the list of countries Trump has pissed off...

This was the week of short-covering compliments of the BOJ, Fed, Bank of England, and tomorrow's jobs report...

Jobs report days are usually big rally days, however, if the count is correct, any gap up above the trend-line will be a headfake...Monday's gap is still open (left of 'BOJ'):

According to this article, January is the most volatile month for jobs predictions:

"Total nonfarm employment is expected to increase by 175,000, according to Reuters"

"observers' hopes for a solid month of job growth were buoyed Wednesday when payroll processor ADP reported 246,000 new workers...ADP's report was a positive sign, but it's no guarantee that the BLS will have similar numbers. The two reports employ different methodology"

"Januaries with new administrations entering office have actually seen an average net loss of around 4,000 jobs on average."

Volume has been coiling

VIX shorts hit a record high this week while the VIX hit a 10 year low yesterday

Throughout this final rally smart money has been selling
TRIN

Of course, we already knew that...

Banks and Brokers have rolled over deja vu of 2008
Schwab with IPOs

With Banks and Energy rolling over, big cap tech is the last thing holding up the market...

QQQ/DOW ratio:

Amazon which was the last mega cap tech stock to report, just imploded after hours on a revenue miss. To date, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook have all rolled over...

In other words, there goes the ENTIRE retail sector compliments of Trump:

"What do you mean there's no such thing as a jobless consumer?"

Amazon and Sears

Post-jobs report, I think Trump will get his way with the weaker dollar...

Third Wave Down Across The Board

Ameritrade. What else?

The Nasdaq is key, since it's gripping the Trump rally trend line going back to November...

S&P

High Beta (Banks, Energy)

Oil

Dollar

Meanwhile, trouble in paradise...

"I am the star of the Apprentice, I can fix the world"

"We believe you"

TrumpFuckistan Is Self-Imploding

Globalization may not survive four weeks with Circus Clownius. This will be a lesson TrumpFuckistan never forgets...

"The world is in trouble, but we're gonna straighten it out. That's what I do, I fix things. When I left the Apprentice, they hired a big, big movie star to take my place, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and we know how that went; the ratings went right down the tubes, it's been a total disaster"

Trump's fantasy mandate to cherry pick the raisins out of the Globalized oatmeal by "making America first" is a house of cards consisting of colliding contradictions. To date, he has managed to piss off half of the entire U.S. - the half that votes Democrat. He has also alienated a significant portion of the traditional Republican constituency. Beyond the U.S., to date, he has alienated all of America's largest trading partners: Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany. In deriding Mexicans he has enraged the entire Latin American community. In deriding Muslims, he has angered the entire Middle East. Europeans in general seem to think he's a mega tool, although he has appeal to neo-Nazis. 

“You have a bunch of bad hombres down there,” Trump told Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto"

“You aren’t doing enough to stop them. I think your military is scared. Our military isn’t, so I just might send them down to take care of it.”

And all of this buffoonery without a cost? Wishful thinking. The tab will arrive far sooner than anyone expects. One of his most blatant and asinine contradictions is his nascent policy of talking down the dollar. Unfortunately he seems to have forgotten his plan to reflate the U.S. economy and cut taxes. All of that rhetoric sent U.S. yields soaring and the dollar with them. Now, of course, that late cycle fantasy is fading quickly amid the reality that pushing through a fiscal policy package could take months or even a year. In the meantime, all of that hot money that flooded into the U.S. in anticipation of a higher yield, is unwinding amid accelerating currency losses.

Trump's promised reflation is imploding into deflation. And he is helping it implode:

Do it, bozo...

TOO LATE

"The market this week is dealing with the realization that President Donald Trump means all the things he says. He really is a protectionist, really does think America needs to be protected from the world both economically and physically. He really does make policy without much care or thought to get details right, he really has recruited an honest-to-God terrible team, and it actually is kind of dangerous."

Global interest rates aka. Global TrumpPlosion

I knew Trump would come through, and he has exceeded my wildest expectations...

Reality Has Never Been Wrong. Not Even Once.

For the past eight years we've been faced with the choice to accept the fact that the consumption oriented lifestyle is a dead end. The upside of ignoring that truth is eight years of extended 'vacation'. The downside is financial obliteration with the full assistance from proven serial psychopaths... 

Back in the day, I got shellacked during Y2K, gambling on the long side. I made it all back and then got monkey hammered by 9/11. I made that all back and got final pole axed in 2002 in the final leg down. Just like now, everyone thought that a new bull market was underway post-9/11...

This chart reminded me of my three stage introduction to Wall Street serial pump and dumps. This is the VIX/VXO ratio and in a nutshell it indicates when the largest caps are weakening relative to the rest of the market. As it was back then, the largest caps are now extremely weak:

Apple looks to have finished wave 2 retracement today...

Microsoft

Google

Amazon

Exxon

Berkshire

JP Morgan

JnJ

Facebook

GE

iPhoney Rally

Basically one stock - the world's largest by market cap - held the market up today. Other than that, it was business as usual...

The Fed statement was neutral, so the fake reflation trade went mostly nowhere today. Were it not for Apple, the market would have likely imploded today. The stock was up almost 8% at the highs today, but gave some back at the end:

Of course, the last time the world's largest stock was slingshot higher was just prior to market meltdown. But I'm sure it will be different this time...

The S&P gapped up at the open, gave it all back and then Skynet went to work crushing the VIX to a decade low to salvage the uptrend line:

According to this count, wave 2 ended at today's opening high...

The dollar backtested the breakdown line:

Yield was very weak today

Banks

Oil was bid, but Energy stocks imploded:

Thanks to Apple, the Nasdaq led today with New highs

Advance - Decline short-term

Long-term

Money flow crash indicator:

Long-term money flow

Large cap new highs