Friday, June 3, 2016

Confirming The Count

Four short-covering rallies in one holiday shortened week...

To get to Magic 2100: Site of all crashes



Breadth Momentum. I mean short-covering.


Volatility (Compression)



Price / Volume


Leadership



Equal Weight / Cap Weight aka. "short-covering"



Oil and Exxon




Buy The All Time Lie

U.S. Stocks are 100% partying on their own now. 
Treasuries, JPY, deflation, oil, Global risk, have all rolled over... 

Skynet is crushing volatility to ensure all gamblers are onboard with the delusion...


U.S. Payrolls with Stocks (SPY ETF)


World ex-U.S.




Third gap down open in a week, but who's counting. The last time that happened was January and August.

Must. Fill. Opening. Gap.



What happens after that is someone else's problem...




Overnight risk visualized
Futures sold off every night this week:







Oil Is Rigged

The oil "recovery" is the other widely accepted colossal lie. This entire rally has been due to massively leveraged momentum speculation, offshore contango storage, stockpiling by China, and a nominal uptick in demand despite a 70% drop in price...

And now production is increasing again:




Triple leveraged oil


Got leverage?


Speculators have been buried by the oil recovery lie
USO ETF 






No 'Conomy. Buy Stocks. What Else?

Seven years of peddling fiction. RISK IS BINARY.

There's no lie too big that the Idiocracy won't believe it. A seven month downtrend in new jobs is an "outlier", which means of course more free money for gambling...

Volume is currently running at 160% of the 10 day average. Volatility is pending the low volatility Fund. What else?

Every time this rolls over, volatility explodes




Which in turn is pending Utilities



Staples




And...











RECESSION AT 0%

Fiction-peddler in Chief:
"Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction. (Applause.)"

The U.S. is basically at full Idiocracy:


Foodstamps with Employment Population Ratio




Intelligence is an outlier:


ZH: June 3, 2016
312,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost In Past Two Months, Offset By Part-Time Hires




We're at full unemployment, so EconoDunces don't see recession. A few things disagree with them...

Global Trade
Global Growth
Corporate Profits
Capacity Utilization
Inventories
Manufacturing
Retail
Auto sales
Job growth
Bond Yields
Risk Aversion
Financials
Defensive sector rotation
IPOs
Junk Bonds
Oil/Commodities
Carry Trades


Deflation w/Oil




"Printing money to buy stocks was their secret to effortless wealth"





Q1 Final Results: Layoffs To Fund Stock Buybacks

TERMINAL IDIOCRACY




"I can't be sure yet, but I think I see a trend developing here"



The Labor Department also reported Friday that the headline unemployment fell to 4.7 percent.

The drop in the unemployment rate was primarily due to a drop in the labor force participation rate, which fell to a 2016 low of 62.6 percent, a level near a four-decade low. The number of Americans not in the labor force surged to a record 94.7 billion, an increase of 664,000.

Wall Street was looking for payroll growth of 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.0 percent.

Instead, the private sector added just 25,000 jobs. Previous months' reports also saw sharp downward revisions, with March sliding from 208,000 to 186,000 and April going from 160,000 to 123,000.


"Amazon doesn't have to worry about profits, they don't have any"




"The good news is that we made the quarter. The bad news is that we forecast zero revenue for next quarter"









Thursday, June 2, 2016

The Consumption Oriented Lifestyle Is Game Over, Man


We live in a stoned Idiocracy, so don't tell anyone, you'll fuck up the surprise...



The ball is already rolling...




The sheeple suspect nothing. Because being lied to is clearly a full time job...

Cash (Money Market) balances:



Corporate profits with 0%




Car dealers



Shopping malls



High end art



Luxury goods



McMansions


Mercedes Benz



Apple



Walmart



Dollar Store: 





Buy The All Time Lies

Fake jobs data, no problem. Fake OPEC meeting, no problem. Fake China data, no problem. Fake recovery, no problem. Crashing retail, no problem. Collapsing auto sales, buying opportunity. Fake stock market, load me up... 

2100 is a magic level where stoned zombies get monkey hammered over and over again...by the Fed. In between they forget about the last time...

Three tops, from the time 2100 is first crossed, until something "bad" happens:



What do all three tops have in common?
They were countdowns to Fed rate hikes. The September rate hike was pre-empted in August by China devaluation. The January meltdown occurred immediately following the Dec. 21st rate hike. 

One of these believes in the fake-believe economy and the other one doesn't. Only one of these will be right in the end - the same one that was right the last two times...

1 Year Treasury yields ("The Fed") with JPY:




The attention deficit visualized...
U.S. stocks with CNY (red):




USDJPY aka. "Funding"




New 52 week highs lies:





T -9 days, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4...