Recession stocks are screaming recession. I wonder why...
Consumer discretionary / Consumer staples:
In each cycle, yields continue to fall during the deflationary phase after the end of the recession. Then they trough and begin rising towards the "inflationary" peak of the cycle. When they roll over again, the cycle ends:
2 year Treasury yield (black) with ten year (red):
Likewise, when capacity utilization (blue) and the two year yield are both falling, then recession is not far away...
Capacity utilization year over year % change:
Corporate profits year over year ($billions):
