Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Time For Ponzi PANIC
There's a generation of gamblers who don't know what the word "Sell" means. Since they didn't sell ahead of time, Skynet will sell for them off hours...
An Inconvenient Crash
The draft-dodger-in-chief is too busy teaching the NFL about fake patriotism to get his real job done. No one is going to be laughing when this is all over...
Nevertheless, on the long end of the yield curve self-imploding balance sheet shrinkage is going ahead as planned:
We need better leadership," Duff said. "The lack of leadership seems like a vacuum when it comes to getting any substance passed."
"Don't worry, I'm on it"
Unfortunately, now stoned gamblers are caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of clown man and the clueless Fed. Having taken the monetary punch bowl away last week, a few days later they now admit that they're totally clueless. Who knew?
No 'Conomy. No problem. We can just print more money.
No 'Conomy. No problem. We can just print more money.
Nevertheless, on the long end of the yield curve self-imploding balance sheet shrinkage is going ahead as planned:
Moreover, Tech already lost its momentum to the fake reflation trade...
"Since March 2009, the S&P 500 fell 17 times out of 18 instances when the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund fell 5 percent or more in one month, according to Kensho."
The Idiocracy's "Amazon is taking over the world" collapse denial narrative is imploding in real-time:
The other end of the deflationary dumbbell - recession stocks - are also imploding...
The Emerging Markets trade is rolling over:
Which places the casino at the mercy of end-of-cycle short-covering. Which the Fed just imploded...
Monday, September 25, 2017
"Buy The Fucking Detonation"
These are some very well trained hairless monkeys. Unfortunately, having a clown as president does not constitute a "Black Swan" event. Although we already know that's what they will call it...
Reason #1: WWIII
DIVIDE AND CONQUER 101
As we see, ordinary Americans are being pitted against each other to the sole benefit of the multinational corporation and its beneficiaries. One factor that seldom if ever gets mentioned on any blog or web site is the fact that Industrial Arbitrage via "Free Trade" allowed multinational corporations to sell off the middle class. Leaving behind the spent carcass of the erstwhile economy now overrun with the toxic weeds of rent-seeking and financialization. Central Banks didn't create deflation by increasing the money supply - that's an asinine supposition. Central Banks monetized imported deflation, in order to alchemize excess capital into phony demand. You never hear today's bailout junkies mention this first order factor - mostly out of shame. We can never blame the model itself for not working, it's always some second derivative factor that allows blame to be deflected from the origin.
And the fact that Globalization created a global third world refugee camp instead of a global middle class is of absolutely no concern. As long as the Dow is always pegged to all time highs.
Where was the corporate media in all of this? They were giving the status quo the patina of solvency. Scrutinizing every issue in isolation and never once drawing a straight line between cause and effect. Never seeing the forest for the trees. Questioning nothing.
Back to Detonation BTFD:
Another day of this Johnson: Tech demolished with the S&P pegged to all time highs via volatility compression.
As mentioned on Zerohedge, the VVIX/VIX ratio is all time highs. Meaning, the implosion trifecta of record low volatility, record short futures positioning, and record high second derivative sensitivity to volatility are occurring simultaneously...
“I think a lot of folks have gotten lulled into a false sense of security because the short trade has gone so well for so long,”
“We are still shorting volatility but we have an itchier trigger finger.”
Notice he didn't say they had sold. Only that risks are extreme, and they will beat the crowd to the exits at 2am when the futures roll over. Unfortunately, the record high VVIX/VIX ratio by definition indicates that they are not alone. It means that VIX acceleration sensitivity is at a record, hence the risk of a large one day percentage move is also extreme.
Which generates the detonation sequence:
Coupled with the fact that RISK IS 'OFF' for the first time in a year...
Rotating to Energy. Bad idea.
Lower yields? Clueless Fed? I don't believe it again, and again, and again...
ZH: That Didn't Work. Yet.
Reason #1: WWIII
DIVIDE AND CONQUER 101
As we see, ordinary Americans are being pitted against each other to the sole benefit of the multinational corporation and its beneficiaries. One factor that seldom if ever gets mentioned on any blog or web site is the fact that Industrial Arbitrage via "Free Trade" allowed multinational corporations to sell off the middle class. Leaving behind the spent carcass of the erstwhile economy now overrun with the toxic weeds of rent-seeking and financialization. Central Banks didn't create deflation by increasing the money supply - that's an asinine supposition. Central Banks monetized imported deflation, in order to alchemize excess capital into phony demand. You never hear today's bailout junkies mention this first order factor - mostly out of shame. We can never blame the model itself for not working, it's always some second derivative factor that allows blame to be deflected from the origin.
And the fact that Globalization created a global third world refugee camp instead of a global middle class is of absolutely no concern. As long as the Dow is always pegged to all time highs.
Where was the corporate media in all of this? They were giving the status quo the patina of solvency. Scrutinizing every issue in isolation and never once drawing a straight line between cause and effect. Never seeing the forest for the trees. Questioning nothing.
Back to Detonation BTFD:
Another day of this Johnson: Tech demolished with the S&P pegged to all time highs via volatility compression.
As mentioned on Zerohedge, the VVIX/VIX ratio is all time highs. Meaning, the implosion trifecta of record low volatility, record short futures positioning, and record high second derivative sensitivity to volatility are occurring simultaneously...
“I think a lot of folks have gotten lulled into a false sense of security because the short trade has gone so well for so long,”
“We are still shorting volatility but we have an itchier trigger finger.”
Notice he didn't say they had sold. Only that risks are extreme, and they will beat the crowd to the exits at 2am when the futures roll over. Unfortunately, the record high VVIX/VIX ratio by definition indicates that they are not alone. It means that VIX acceleration sensitivity is at a record, hence the risk of a large one day percentage move is also extreme.
Which generates the detonation sequence:
Coupled with the fact that RISK IS 'OFF' for the first time in a year...
Rotating to Energy. Bad idea.
Lower yields? Clueless Fed? I don't believe it again, and again, and again...
ZH: That Didn't Work. Yet.
"Buy The Fucking Detonation"
Friday, September 22, 2017
On Rosh Hashanah It Is Written, On Yom Kippur It Is Sealed
All of the lies got bought with both hands this Lehman anniversary week. Let's see what good fortune the God of reality brings THIS New Year...
Indeed.
Let's see, this week:
The fake reflation trade came back in size
The Fed pounded the yield curve down to recession levels
Big cap tech, and Apple in particular, got monkey hammered
OPEC met and did nothing, as usual
Nuclear-armed mad men traded apocalyptic escalations
The Keynesian bombing trade pinned the casino to all time highs...
First off, today the dumb phone era ended:
Any questions?
Speaking of unraveling, Republicans' latest medieval Trumpcare plan even has the insurance cartel defecting. The GOP has exactly one week to pass their tax money grab after which they need 60 votes in the Senate which is a bridge too far. Supporters can take solace in the fact that their party did everything possible to take from the working class to give to the bailout class...
You know a plan is bad when even the insurance cartel throws up on it...
The Fed pulled an epic Jedi Mind Trick on weak minded fools this week by telling them the economy is strong, despite all data to the contrary. Gamblers took no time putting the fake reflation trade right back on, while extolling the virtues of dunces over data
After all, no serial conned muppet has seen this movie before...
Unfortunately for that delusion, no tax cuts and no reflation, means less carry trade liquidity for propping up the casino.
Each rally sees less and less inflow:
OPEC put on yet another good Jedi Mind Trick of their own:
"Fool me every time, I enjoy it"
The only way this charade continues day after day amid massive technical damage is thanks to volume and volatility compression...
But then eventually luck runs out...
Record volatility short positions visualized:
"Leadership"
Key reversal of fortune
"War is the only answer"
"The ancient Rabbis contrasted God's sovereignty with the rule of Rome. Rome seeks its own glory, wars against other peoples to subjugate them, revels in material existence, lives off the work of slave labor, allows many to die of poverty and starvation, and promotes entertaining circuses and gladiator spectacle. The Rabbis, picturing redemption, remark that the messianic age will be recognized when an end is brought to the rule of wickedness."
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