Ponzi World (Over 3 Billion NOT Served)

The globalized economy is a colossal Ponzi Scheme in which the vast majority survive on the bread crumbs falling off the table. The possibility of 7 billion people achieving a consumption-oriented lifestyle is zero, so the World Bank conveniently set the poverty line at $1.25/day to legalize global slavery. As long as someone else's children are doing the suffering, it's "all good". Post-2008, this illusion was extended merely by plundering all future generations.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Guard Your Sanity: The Corporate Borg Is Final Imploding

I'm glad I never sold my sanity, I kind of need it right now. The Idiocracy is now caged by eight years of dumbfuck ideas, and they're getting a tad 'antsy'...

As I've said many times throughout this circus, The Borg IS The Illusion. Meaning that the sheeple at large fabricate their own fake-believe narratives and then propagate them via social media. The corporate lamestream media exists solely to monetize the entire fantasy. Unfortunately these people sold their sanity and their souls a long time ago. And now there isn't enough Prozac to go around...

Twitter was invented to conceal the fact that we've become an illiterate Idiocracy. Because the average zombie can't put together a cogent paragraph without contradicting themselves or otherwise running into the fake-believe delusions that underlie the status quo. To say nothing of the attention deficit.

Here is one right here from a Canadian MP:

Right, get the word out on Twitter, we should not be using Twitter.

The other fake meme going around is where were all of these Trump protesters during the election? In other words, eight years of Obama dithering created Trump, so the solution was Hillary. The ideas are so facile now and so self-contradicting that we risk our own sanity to stoop to their level of debased asinine thinking.

Better to just let them implode and see which ones have an appetite for sanity on the other side, and which ones just want to finish it out in an asylum in the fetal position. In the meantime, guard your sanity, because it's under constant attack by the Borg. As it has been since 2008.

By the way Canada has its own wannabe Trump now. Mr. Wonderful.

Fortunately however, "it can't happen here in La La Land". We would never for example, have a crack addict running Toronto.

A Clown Too Far

The last emperor, Circus Clownius

Conned by Social Mood aka. 'Greed' again...

Any questions?

Dollar shorts are cautious right now because the BOJ wraps up tonight. By tomorrow it could get real ugly since no one is hedged ahead of the Fed on Wednesday...

Russell / Dow ratio with JPY

RISK OFF has now arrived...

SMASH CRASH is base case scenario...

the rally also reflects expectations that Trump will roll back regulations across the industry"

Global Financials

2010

Sunday, January 29, 2017

China Wants Their Money Back

China has exported roughly $1 trillion in capital in the past 18 months, now that is reversing, what effect that will have on global asset markets is TBD...

Recall what China's new capital controls did to Bitcoin (Yuan) at the beginning of this year...

Now the same thing is happening to global real estate...

China’s escalating crackdown on capital outflows is sending shudders through property markets around the world.

In London, Chinese citizens who clamored to purchase flats at the city’s tallest apartment tower three months ago are now struggling to transfer their down payments

China's first capital inflow since the currency devaluation in August 2015:

Meanwhile, the Trump trade is close to unraveling...

This is the dollar ETF:

"Globalization Can't Be Renegotiated"

USD (red) with S&P price momentum

Trump and The Fed Just Imploded The Economy

The reflation trade is set to unwind violently amid record insider selling and record short bond positioning. Fiscal stimulus takes months to pass and months more to bring economic impact. In the meantime, the negative monetary effects of Trump-o-Nomics are already taking effect...

Reuters Jan. 28, 2017
Trouble in Paradise...
"When it comes to tax reform, senior congressional aides said the spring of 2018 might be a more likely time than this year for the passage of legislation."

The Fed started talking up interest rates again post-Brexit (July), which drove short-term yields higher. Then Trump piled on with his undefined "fiscal stimulus" plan in November which drove long-term rates higher. These two actions raised rates along the ENTIRE curve, which is extremely deflationary. Combined they rallied the dollar which feeds through via higher imports, lower exports, and lower corporate profits. Which is why GDP missed on Friday.

"Good job, everybody. Go buy some stocks now"

Russell / Dow ratio with consumer staples:

Speculative Bond Shorts

Conflict Of Idiocracy: Party Like It's 1929

Absolutely nothing was learned in 2008, hence the do over. The net effect of 0% interest rate policy is that more capital is openly exposed to risk now than at any time in human history...

Unfortunately, the Idiocracy doesn't believe in conflict of interest, responsibility, accountability, global warming, global warning, objectivity, facts, data, reality, or anything else of value for that matter. What they believe in is circus clowns, alternative facts, Faux News, printing money, ponzi borrowing, intra-generational theft, mass exploitation, CappuccinoConomy, serial EconoDunces, bailouts for billunaires, Walmart, Kardashians, and Goldman Sachs running Treasury.

In other words, there's only one way this can all end - the most painful way possible via the Inefficient Market Hypothesis and the mis-pricing of risk...

Why is risk mispriced? Because Wall Street is more worried about the P&L than the balance sheet. Meaning they gladly put capital at extreme risk rather than sacrifice their own profits by hedging:

RISK IS BINARY
The re-pricing of risk will be instantaneous. You know, like last time except several orders of magnitude more violent...

Unhedging

Index Put/call:

Hedge funds versus S&P:

Still making up for their bet on Hillary...

Active Manager risk exposure:

Saturday, January 28, 2017

The Cost Of The Wall: $Everything

Forrest Trump monkey hammered Emerging Markets, so now they will return the favour...

Fake news, fake leaders, fake recovery, fake 'Conomy, fake people. Conning an entire planet of corporate bukkake whores is not that difficult. Because nothing lies as much as over-committed capital, and the corrupt buffoons managing it...

On a dollar adjusted basis no other stock market in the entire world is near all time highs. On an inflation/debt adjusted basis, the Dow is in 1998. In other words this is all just a colossal Ponzi scheme to the benefit of fewer and fewer people, now featuring eight bailed out billunaires who have more fake wealth than half the world. Make that seven...

Gene Epstein again, EconoDunce extraordinaire:

"The Dow hitting 20,000 was no fluke. Today’s stock prices are well supported by solid prospects for corporate earnings and economic growth"

This is the S&P 500 Wall Street's benchmark:

Tops are a "process" followed by the shitting of bricks...

Meanwhile, due to overwhelmingly pervasive belief in the fake recovery which was outsourced to China until they lost it too - the Fed and Trump have been tightening U.S. monetary policy. This has had the effect of sucking capital out of the entire rest of the world.

Good job, you just imploded Globalization
Global bond yields:

At the same time they have caused quantitative tightening in the U.S. at the end of the cycle. The Fed has never tightened this late in the cycle previously.

U.S. payrolls (red) with log scale Fed Rate:

Trump monkey hammered Emerging markets:

Emerging markets are now making their fifth lower high in this cycle. Each rally is of shorter and shorter duration. The set-up looks like 2011, or more likely 2008, but it's actually 2017...

Worse yet, we see via the VIX, the U.S. is in full Risk On mode: