Sunday, July 26, 2015

Every Time This Happens, Etraders Get Wiped Out

WSJ: July 17, 2015
Google's one-day $65 billion market cap gain is one for the ages

The first time a mega-cap got rocket launched to a one-day ludicrous momentary gain (Y2K), I got wiped out.

Fortunately I can't be conned by the same psychopaths over and over and over again...

Y2K: 
"But Google’s market cap gain is still eclipsed by Cisco Systems Inc. On Monday, April 17, 2000, the stock jumped 17% after tumbling 24% the week before. "


2008:
After that, the next largest gain was:
"the $55.7 billion that Exxon Mobil Corp. gained on Oct. 13, 2008, when the stock bounced 17% after skidding a combined 19% the prior two sessions."



2015:
Google: $65 billion




In other words, it's extremely rare for a single stock to gain market cap greater than 411 out of 500 S&P companies, in a single day - sending the Nasdaq to a 3-std deviation .1% "Black Swan" fake overthrow...




Shanghai Surprise: Another Bubble Bursts

This week the casino got monkey hammered. While the last holdouts went parabolic...

FANG:
Wall Street's latest acronym is Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The whole world is falling apart, but the good news is that Amazon finally made a microscopic profit by selling cheap shit over the internet. Their trailing profit margin is -.2%. I'm not making this shit up. And you know you're running out of fumes when Netflix is considered a core holding...

Before we get to FANG, the real news was Apple getting shellacked on a weak earnings report...

I will go out on a limb and say that this is a top 6 months in the making...


Presenting FANG: The four horsemen of the 2015 Tech-Apocalypse...

Friday, July 24, 2015

Dumpster Diving With The Idiocracy. For Fun and Profit.

Only one currency always gains in value

You can't buy it. You can't sell it.

You can't borrow it. You can't save it. 


At the end it levels all castles in the sky.


All men are not created equal, they just die equally humbled.


Amid tears in rain.

What the corporate Idiocracy values, has no value. Half a trillion in annual advertising, not for nothing. 

They throw away everything, mostly themselves.


They can't see the bubble, because they are the fucking bubble. First and foremost what is now disintegrating. Used up for 'special' dividends. 



"One asinine idea led to the next more ludicrous one, until they ran out of time. Swan diving straight into the dumpster of history"



Third Wave Liquidation Phase

EWI Short-term Update: July 22, 2015:
"[Bottom Line] Stocks remain in the final throes of a fifth wave rally. When the structure of the advance is complete, a bear market will begin."

I will go out on a limb and say that a "bear market" has already begun...
S&P with average stock


My wave count doesn't allow for a new high. The top was in May with two subsequent retracements. The Dow first reached this level over 8 months ago, and is now negative on the year. When acceleration is at hand, it's best not to get too fancy with the voodoo...

Dow:


Even the Biotech Casino took a hit this week
Everything else got mauled



NYSE Highs-Lows:



New lows


As expected, this next leg down is led by Oil stocks and Emerging Markets, which are in full liquidation mode


Emerging Market Credit








Shanghai Surprise: Throwing It All Away At The Top

The spectacle of Chinese investors losing everything was so exciting, the Idiocracy decided to do it here as well...

The state of the CasinoConomy:

Amazon (blue) versus Walmart (red)



Amazon.com just became the world's largest retailer by market capitalization today, overtaking Walmart. The stock is up 17% on news that it didn't run another quarterly loss. 

Walmart's (average) single quarter profit exceeds Amazon's cumulative annual profits from the past 21 years since its inception in 1994. This is the most recent quarter:




"In a few years, buying cheap shit from China and selling it direct over the internet, is going to make a huge profit"
[Jeff Bezos, 1994]

"Read the prospectus carefully before throwing all of your money away at the top, like last time, and the time before that."




Thursday, July 23, 2015

2008 Is Resuming Right Where It Left Off

Massive stock buybacks have lured gamblers into the abyss

China already in melt-down mode
Chinese stocks (black) with Chinese GDP growth (red)




ZH: July 22, 2015
Caterpillar Sales Warning of Global Depression



Freeport McMoran (Copper Mining)



Oil and oil stocks (red)


Canadian Dollar


Canadian stocks



U.S. Railroads


All commodities (red) with global growth


Global (OECD) Carry Trades with U.S. interest rates (red)
Short Euro, Swiss, Swede. Long Aussie, Kiwi, Norway


Emerging Markets Currency



Global Risk: OFF
Shanghai Comp, Euro Stoxx, U.S. Russell 2000, Hang Seng (Hong Kong), Nikkei (Japan), Canadian stocks


U.S. Treasuries (30 Year) are well bid


My S&P Count does not allow for a new high



Being An Arrogant Dumbfuck Is Not A 'Black Swan' Event

Today's buffoons will be swallowed whole by the grand canyon between their arrogance and their ignorance. The difference between what they know and what they pretend to know, is chasmic. Somewhere along the line they even discovered the secret to the impossible.  

Today's buffoons speak with certainty about uncertain things, and far worse, speak with uncertainty about certain things - what they call "Black Swan" events. Unfortunately, being an arrogant dumbfuck, is not a rare and unpredictable event. 

Far from it...
After Greenspan retired, his role in the subprime housing debacle was shoved down his throat by the exact same people who venerated him just a few years earlier: 

October 23, 2008: New York Times:

"But on Thursday, almost three years after stepping down as chairman of the Federal Reserve, a humbled Mr. Greenspan admitted that he had put too much faith in the self-correcting power of free markets. 'Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief,'”

"Shocked", I tell you: Who knew that giving illegal aliens zero down payment mortgages for $700k McMansions, would be a bad idea?
WSJ: May 3, 2007 
Big Banks' Loan Push: Illegal Immigrants
"Whoever hits the street first with these loans will be the winner," says Timothy Sandos, president of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals"

The Bush chimp made it to the last year of his second term before it all fell apart like a cheap fucking tent. Seven years of Neocon bullshit was flushed down the toilet instantly. 

Today's uber-buffoons dusted off the Bush/Greenspan playbook and raised it to volume '11'. 1% interest rates for three years were taken down to 0% for six years. A doubling in debt, aka. 'Keynesian' corporate stimulus. Profit margins and foodstamps, off the charts. 

History will efficiently locate all of them and throw them straight into the fucking dumpster. From hero to zero overnight. 

And they will all be as "shocked" as Greenspan.

Because every arrogant moron is forced to realize inevitably, that he's just an arrogant fucking moron.

And in this era, the dumpster will be overflowing.



Risks Are Highest At The Top

When everyone has their head up their own ass. Extrapolating the impossible into the indefinite future. While Financial Deathstar 2.0 is counting down to implosion...




And it's probably best for Prechter & Company, having been bearish for six years straight, not to start fiddle fucking around with talk of new highs (Dow & S&P). But they have a unique talent for being wrong all the time. And they don't want to fuck up their stellar reputation by being right for once.  

This doesn't look like a new high to me:
Dow:
w/% of stocks above 200 day moving average



Longer-term Dow:
I'll go out on a limb and say that a new high isn't going to happen



This is fucking ridiculous:



New NYSE Highs-lows:
We've never seen anything this asinine before...



How this could ever work is anyone's guess...
S&P with average stock:



Etraders really want to lose everything this time...And they will not be disappointed
Growth /Value:



Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Globalization Runs on Non-Stop Lying and Bullshit

"And they all rode the ship straight to the bottom, no questions asked. Obedient corporate drones right to the very end. Those seeking to monetize poverty, were monetized by poverty."




In Ponzi World, the marginal cost of global labour is $2.50/day, the median subsistence level. There are 3 billion people who live at or below this level - an unlimited pool of cheap labour. Meaning that the people who make everything are for all intents and purposes slaves, with virtually zero upside economic mobility. The middle class across the developed world can't compete with nations having no minimum labour or environmental standard. So they experience ever-growing unemployment due to the relentless corporate arbitrage.

Sinking straight to the bottom, amid continuous bullshit...
"It seemed odd, everyone 'retiring' at the same time during a recovery, but I never questioned it. I got my PhD from a Cracker Jack box"




Every job function and industry that gets outsourced comes back at 1/10th the value in global GDP as product cost gets "right-sized" down to Third World wages and profit margins.

The resulting massively bloated retail profit margins are an ephemeral illusion based upon debt accumulation...

70% profit margin: 


The Globalized Ponzi scheme visualized:
Globalization separates supply from demand and brokers the difference via debt, what Bernankenstein calls the global "savings glut".




No one will admit that the recurring trade deficit is the root cause of the problem:
"It seemed odd that we kept buying shit from China without ever paying them back, but I never questioned it. I thought they were just being generous" 
Commonsense 101: No country can run trade deficits for 35 years straight. Trade deficits equal debt:




The cumulative U.S. trade deficit is $10 trillion over 35 years. It would be a lot higher if it wasn't for the fact that every industry that gets Walmartized, is refactored to "cost" 1/10th as much when reimported as finished goods. That's the "good news" i.e. the successful monetization of Third World slavery. The bad news is that this "refactoring" of the global economy towards the Third World has unleashed relentless uncontrolled deflation, now baselined into corporate profits while destroying middle class wages. And global GDP is of course tanking, since the developed world middle class is getting "refactored" with nothing to replace it.

Supply-side, Trickle-down, Voodoo Reaganomics led to supply with no demand
Relentless DEFLATION visualized (long-term Treasury yields):



"At the end, the corporations monetized themselves. For fun and profit"
Each "recovery" becomes weaker and weaker as corporations respond to the lack of middle class revenue by further outsourcing the middle class. It's a downward death spiral, now featuring a corporate revenue "recession" and the largest number of self-liquidating stock buybacks in corporate history - The end game phase of liquidating balance sheet cash to create one-time fake earnings "growth". 



The Fed funds the casino, so billunaires and Etraders can pretend to be wealthy, while the economy gets liquidated
According to Econo-dunces, jobless "consumers" benefit from ultra low prices, despite having no incomes. Basically, the people on the top decks of this Titanic pretend that the Third World deflation rushing in via the chasmic hole in the side of the ship can be bailed out using conventional counter-cyclical tools such as Monetary and Fiscal stimulus, ad infinitum. They never stop to question why these same tools have been used for 35 years straight on an ever-increasing basis with no improvement in wages, full time jobs, trade deficits or debt levels. The only thing that goes up is fake wealth, as everything gets liquidated. The cost of capital has been stuck at zero for six years amid non-existent inflation, combined with a dearth of revenue-producing opportunities. In a middle class revenue recession , capital has no long-term investment value. The real and nominal return on capital is zero. Hence, all capital is directed towards rent-seeking, zero sum short-term speculation, and jobs automation for self-cannibalizing profit "growth". 

We are told that lower interest rates "help" the economy:
"It seemed odd that lower interest rates were coinciding with lower overall employment, but I never questioned it. I have an IQ lower than a fucking doorknob"
Interest rates with Employment-Population ratio:



Those on the bottom decks were subsumed long ago - below the water line steerage level, no voice, no representation. The people on the top decks spend all of their time and energies pretending that life on a ship keeled over at 45 degrees is perfectly normal. The band plays on. The Captain of the Titanic is changed every few years and the people on top decks pretend that the futile bailing will stop and the ship will magically right itself.

In the meantime, the Titanic continues its relentless slide into the icy abyss amid non-stop rampant lying. 

In this story the Titanic blows up at the end, as $200 trillion in global fake wealth gets "refactored" for Third World returns, in real-time, a process already well advanced. 

Global Dow with Global GDP (red)


This will be the most cataclysmic decimation of "wealth" in human history, without any possible comparison.

The foundation has been eliminated.

The only thing left to be "refactored", are the profits:
Corporate profits baselined to GDP



Monday, July 20, 2015

Mad Men: Ayn Rand's False Gods

The Corporate Idiocracy threw everything God made into the landfill...

So God returned the favour.

The "Atlas-like" job destroyers figured out early on that they had a knack for steam-rolling everyone else and that "knowing things" was just an unnecessary detail. The prevailing culture of buffoonish false bravado lapped up their facile half truths. Neither side had any clue how much bullshit they were free-basing. There was no one around to tell them. 


So they took those Manson-like "social" skills into the work world and as their first order of business outsourced anyone who knew anything and might challenge their unfounded authority. Along with the jobs and factories, which were an "expensive complication". They kept the brand names, which they would lever 10x with offshore factories and stock buybacks. Since they themselves had no fucking clue about anything, they kept a few PhDs around on short leash to invent whatever MBA curriculum was needed to rationalize the impending devastation. By the end, they had monetized everyone and everything, including themselves and their like-minded sociopathic corporations. A country club full of Bernie Madoffs running amok. Human call options, set to expire worthless.  

The disposable Idiocracy at large venerated and emulated the vaunted sociopaths who then jumped from corporations to government back and forth. Facilitating the continuous flow of Monetary and Fiscal "Keynesian" corporate profit stimulus. Like fake Gods, they created their own corporate-controlled media infotainment unreality TV and thereby abolished any form of real intelligence. 2,000 channels of vacuous garbage. There would be no learning on the Learning Channel and no history on the History Channel.  

It was all fake, hollow, and utterly pointless, like the shrink-wrapped society that embraced it. They couldn't possibly see it ending in broad daylight, since their deep fried brains were far too weak to acknowledge any vestige of reality.   

Someone had to prove it wouldn't work, so they did. An historical dead-end, inconveniently swan diving straight into the dumpster. Lid closed. 

Then we move forward. 

Believe in reality or believe in unreality. Live by the buffoon, die by the buffoon.