Ponzinomics: Only One Lie To Live

Debt IS the economy and you can't spend the future twice

The ongoing infotainment around Fed rate hikes is all well and good; however it all ignores the fact that only further debt accumulation - by households or governments - will keep the "economy" afloat, albeit temporarily. At PEAK LEVERAGE, any attempt to reduce debt will collapse what is left of the illusion-formerly-known-as-the-economy.

"This" does not go in reverse, as we learned in 2008

Debt as % of GDP with Fed Funds rate

The Fed Has No Dry Powder...

Land of the Setting Sun: Leading the Way

Japan's Abenomic currency debasement program is bankrupting "consumers" by raising import prices. Fortunately, currency debasement makes exporters more competitive.

Bloomberg: Jan. 23, 2015

BOJ Governor Kuroda:

"I think the export as I said has increased somewhat, but not much"...

Linear Extrapolation of the Asinine, Is The Bane of Humankind

First, dumbfucks attempt something inherently stupid; if by some random miracle it works once, they then proceed to do it over and over again until it implodes. Ideally, they will convince as many people as possible to participate.

Those who manage to survive - due to pure luck, merely ascribe their misfortune to a "Black Swan" event - extremely rare and totally unpredictable; and then they start all over again, until such time as they implode.

Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" in two paragraphs. Human history in one blog post.

"We'll Do Whatever It Takes"

S&P 500 adjusted for CPI aka. "15 years to nowhere"

With Rydex Bullish Asset Allocation (back at all time highs this week)

It's sad how fucking stagnant this society has become and the lies they desperately need to believe. Life without mass consumption. Unthinkable.

Financial Collapse Or Hyperinflation?

The Inflationists who are betting that hyperinflation will take their gold bars off their hands, are running out of time

Post-2008: Bailing out lenders by giving borrowers more debt

Contrary to the dunced narrative of the day, we do not live in the Weimar Republic. There is no mechanism by which today's monetary expansion makes its way into the real economy other than via Mega-yachts and artwork. Quite the contrary, while billunaires enjoy their $47 hot dogs at Davos, the Middle class is getting inexorably squeezed by massive debts and deflating wages. There is an inexhaustible supply of labour deflation waiting to be imported from the Third World at ever-lower cost. Once multinationals "use up" one country, they move on to the next cheaper one. Constantly trying to get production costs down to Perfect Competition's "marginal cost" aka. $2.50/day, which is where half of the world's population resides. The "motherlode"...

Three Minutes to Midnight

Staring into the abyss and seeing only Kardashians staring back

This top has been forming for over a year now aka. three airliner searches
All World Stock Markets ex-U.S.:

DEFLATION Expectations (Since 2009): "RISK OFF"

Canadian dollar, all commodities, Russian stocks, U.S. inflation expectations, EM Currencies

Worshipping in the Temple of Doom

One mega-lie deserves the next bigger one...

Large scale bets against this disaster reached a 2.5 year high. TODAY
Index put/call: 

The State of the Obamanation
"We've turned the page, to the next page, which will take us to the next page, of bullshit"
The Obama "Recovery" compared to the Bush "Recovery" via one year interest rates
You have to squint to see his fantastic recovery that cost $100k/household in new Federal debt...

Too Big To Bail: In Flagrante Delicto

A corrupt society can't recognize corruption

NY Times, Jan. 13, 2015

"The continuing assault on the 2010 Dodd-Frank law has achieved remarkable success"

"The financial industry has been methodical, drafting technically complicated legislation that can pass the heavily Republican House with a few Democratic votes. "

"The House was back at it this week. Lawmakers approved by a vote of 250 to 175, with just eight Democrats in support, a broad measure to impose a variety of new restrictions on federal regulators"

"The current efforts to undermine Dodd-Frank have been textbook lobbying. In the first three quarters of last year, the securities and investment industry spent nearly $74 million on lobbying — on 704 registered lobbyist"

Goldman Sachs is running the ECB AND the U.S. Government.

Weapons of Mass Destruction aka. Financials

Financials have significantly underperformed since the start of the year:

The next wave down is the "third" wave, and hence the most devastating. Thanks to the hard work by Wall Street and Congress in rolling back Dodd Frank, collapse will pick up right where it left off.

A fitting way to end - history's largest gang of bukkake whores caught in the act. 

Life in Ponzi World: Fake It 'Til You Break It

Billionaire goes "remarkably long" U.S. stocks while assuming this is all doomed to fail

BBG: January 22, 2015

Billionaire Bet Against Subprime, Now Long Stocks, Short the 'Future'

"Greene, flew his wife, children and two nannies on a private jet plane to Davos for the week"

“I’m remarkably long [stocks] for my level of pessimism,” he said. “Our economy is in deep trouble. We need to be honest with ourselves. We’ve had a realistic level of job destruction, and those jobs aren’t coming back. America’s lifestyle expectations are far too high and need to be adjusted. We need to reinvent our whole system of life."

But for now, let's party like it's 2008
Jan. 23rd
"Developed World Carry Trade"
Short Euro, JPY, Swiss Franc. Long Aussie, Kiwi, Norwegian Krone

Realistic job destruction? At least he didn't say things have never been better...

Brown Swan Events: Expect the 'Unexpected'

Front-Running: Wall Street's Favourite Game

ZH: Jan. 23, 2015

Speculators have already front-run Eur 800 billion of the expected Eur 1 trillion (which was supposed to be deployed over 16 months) 

The Euro has been front-running Draghi for a year now:

Shorting the Euro: The most crowded (carry) trade in human history...