Thursday, September 17, 2015

From Manic To Panic aka. "Discontinuous Price Discovery"

The manic short covering phase appears to be over. The Nasdaq 100 recovered 80% of its loss before, during, and after the Fed diversion...

According to Prechter & Company this next leg down is wave 5 aka. the Re-test. Overthrow. Rally.

According to me it's wave 3, failed test. Collapse. A second wave is a bull trap, indicating one dip too many got bought, followed soon after by panic.  

Therefore, under my interpretation the velocity of decline on this next leg down will exceed anything we've seen before in our lifetimes. 

The S&P just gave up 30 points in a matter of minutes at today's close, which is a subtle hint at what I expect. Either way we shouldn't have long to see who is right...

Nasdaq 100 with 200 day moving average

Daneric has the same count as me (3rd wave), using the Wilshire 5000 total market index:

Financials are locus of risk ex-non rate hike. During the August Flash Crash they lost 30% at the open. Today, they got sold hard after the Fed non-decision...