Thursday, July 18, 2013

Are You Willing To Lose It All?

That's what I ask myself whenever I am tempted to capitulate on my bearish views and otherwise accept the bubble fantasy that defines the status quo. I consider the fact that everything is now at stake because Central Bank alchemy has caused literally all aspects of the global economy to be 100% correlated. Meanwhile, as was pointed out this week, on an inflation adjusted basis, the Dow has made literally no progress since the year 2000 - thirteen years ago. And as I said recently, this isn't a fucking mystery novel. We know with 100% certainty how all of this will turn out. Meanwhile, an investment in short-term treasuries only trails the dividend adjusted S&P by ~15% since 2007 - with the market now at all time highs, yet the 2008 loss in stocks exceeded the loss in short-term treasuries by 50%. Just something to keep in mind as we are constantly bombarded with "the market is at new highs" bullshit...That propaganda is strictly to suck as much money in as possible before once again heading straight back down into the all too familiar abyss...

For those who say that Treasuries are not safe at this juncture, I addressed that issue in "Deflation v.s. Hyperinflation". We are now in the phase wherein interest rates are rising which will bring about the Minsky Moment as marginal borrowers are shut out of the credit markets...