Saturday, October 27, 2012

(Still) Livin' La Vida Loca

Time to step back from the hyperbole and gain some long-term perspective.  As we see in the market charts below, there have been three major bubble eras in the past 15 years, each driven by its own set of unique factors.  However, the one key driver and common factor to all three bubbles was highly accommodative monetary stimulus.  Stepping back and looking at the second (uncommented) chart below, it's impossible to deny that despite the ever-increasingly desperate interventions of global policy-makers, their efforts to paper over the cracks in the global economic foundation are losing efficacy.  The market level we are at now was first crossed back in 1999, when we were "Livin' La Vida Loca".  Looks like we still are...:




Of course, there are always those math challenged denialists who say that the U.S. National debt, now at $16 trillion, is not that high when compared to GDP.  First off, it's the highest it's been since WWII.  Secondly, the U.S. needs to borrow a trillion dollars a year just to keep the economy out of recession (i.e. 8% of the debt-sustained economy).  So the real question on the table, that no one from this comfort-seeking generation wants to answer, is how much would GDP be without the ongoing deficit?  Or put it another way that even math morons can understand - it's hard to pay down debt when the country is still borrowing.  Alternatively, we can assume like the esteemed "Economist" that only externally-owed debt matters and that Federal debt owed to Americans doesn't count, because it's money we owe ourselves.  Which is the same as losing one's job and taking a pre-retirement loan telling yourself it's ok, because it's just money you owe yourself.  Unfortunately, with that strategy, there's always the unpleasant adjustment to eating dog food in retirement.

So, until we get a definitive answer and solution to this problem of using ongoing borrowings to pretend to be solvent, then we can only assume that we are now just in the third sequential fantasy bubble phase that will once again end very badly, just like the last two.

Self-cannibalizing Capitalism - Last One Out Turn Off the Lights
I just finished reading Matt Taibbi's excellent article on Mitt Romney and all all I can say is "Wow".  Suffice to say, I would evince no sympathy for a jobless Middle Class dumb enough to elect a man who was at the vanguard of outsourcing the U.S.  Both Darwin and Ayn Rand would agree that any species that acts against its own self-interest, won't be in existence for very long, which means that the Idiocracy is now on borrowed time.  Meanwhile, the self-cannibalizing vulture capitalism model first went after the Middle Class, but now it's going after its own.  No surprise, that one company after another is reporting dismal earnings and revenue in this quarter, following four years of ephemeral outsourcing sponsored pseudo-growth.  The latest casualty on Friday was Apple which came in below earnings expectations and gave a dismal fourth quarter outlook.  Having just launched the MiniPad to limited fanfare, they are now working on the MaxiPad in hopes it will boost their flagging sales - at least with women.